After several years of moderating costs, there are signs the rate of increase in Massachusetts health care prices — and insurance premiums — may soon start accelerating again, exceeding a heralded cost cap set by the state last year.

Three factors are threatening to push residents’ annual health care costs up faster than the state’s overall rate of economic growth:

First, health insurers in Massachusetts estimate the “medical cost trend” — an industry measure based on the price of services and the volume of doctor visits, procedures, and tests — will rise between 6 and 12 percent this year. That would be more than double the state’s anticipated rate of economic growth.

Second, organizers of new insurance-buying cooperatives, formed to enable small businesses to band together and negotiate discounts from health plans, say new federal rules will supersede Massachusetts regulations that qualify small businesses for discounts. That will probably drive up premiums for companies with fewer than 100 workers.

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